During the last days of the electoral campaign, Philadelphia was witnessing another fascinating competition than the electoral match-up between John Fetterman and Dr. Oz: Baseball World Series opposing the Phillies to Houston Astros. During the first game, Fox News aired a horrific ad, paid for by a conservative political action committed called Citizens for Sanity, depicting a terrible image of America, allegedly inundated by record crime and illegal immigration. And the blame fell on nothing else than the money sent by the Biden administration to Ukraine.
A dark, subversive, Kremlin propaganda-inspired message by a group of Trump operatives, who spent more than $40 million to boost MAGA candidates all over the country. Some of their ads were so extreme and brutal that they had to be flagged by YouTube. This is just one example. But there were numerous signs a Republican-controlled Congress would shift from the current foreign policy and eventually cut the funding for Ukraine. The most concerning signal came from Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. “I think people are going to be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine”, said McCarthy who aspires to become Speaker, although at this point the control of the House remains uncertain.
Suffice to say the Republicans underestimated completely the American people, their commitment to democracy and decency, and misinterpreted the polls. Thus, it’s highly likely they are doing the same when it comes to people’s views on the war in Ukraine and what matters for the US national interest.
Despite McCarthy’s assertion about what the American people want, polls indicate important public support for Ukraine. Earlier research published by the prestigious Chicago Council on Global Affairs showed 72% of the people supported providing arms and military supplies to Ukraine, with 58% saying the US should support Ukraine as long as it took and being willing to pay the cost. The percentage is higher among Democrats (68%) than Republicans (50%). More recently, a Reuters/ Ipsos study showed 73% of Americans agree with the US supporting Ukraine despite Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons.
During the weeks leading up to the elections, GOP ramped up the narratives questioning Biden’s foreign policy and the aid to Ukraine, blaming the White House for spending too much money on a war that didn’t have anything to do with the US, so they say, instead of tackling inflation, crime, and immigration.
Trump-backed election deniers were also Ukraine add deniers and foreign policy isolationists.
The Republican Senate candidate in Arizona, Blake Masters, blasted his Democratic opponent Mark Kelly because he can “find $50 billion to secure Ukraine’s border with Russia, but can’t find $10 billion to secure our own border with Mexico.” In New Hampshire, the Republican challenger of the incumbent Democratic senator Maggie Hassan echoed the same message saying the administration must be held accountable and the US “can’t just print money” and “throw equipment” to help Ukraine. In Nevada, Adam Laxalt was even more explicit: “Nevadans didn’t send Senator Cortez Masto to DC to ship $40B of your tax dollars towards another foreign war while families here at home are struggling. Let me break down why I oppose sending $40B of your hard-earned money into a war zone in Ukraine.”
These candidates lost. The only one who pulled through was J.D. Vance. In early spring he had blatantly said he didn’t care about what happened in Ukraine, while later on in September he rephrased his position stating that “We’ve got to stop the money spigot to Ukraine eventually.”
Not only is this approach trying to appeal to visceral instincts, but it is dangerous, to say the least. It points to what foreign policy experts and diplomats from Eastern European countries fear: that Republican control of Congress would result practically in less approved aid to Ukraine, overall in a push for a more cautious approach towards Russia, and ultimately would jeopardize US foreign policy and stance in the region.
Media commented on the growing foreign policy divide within the Republican Party and the emerging fight between the traditional more hawkish approach and the isolationism of MAGA republicans, at times depicted as “America first”. This fight is not over, but now the chances of continued bipartisan support for Ukraine and also for the US policy in the region are renewed.
By keeping control of the Senate, the Democrats not only achieved a historic victory, which allows them to continue their domestic agenda and appoint liberal judges but managed to avert a dangerous slip in foreign policy. With the House still up for grabs, uncertainty persists. However, we don’t have to deal with the foreign policy consequences of a “red wave”. After these midterms, US democracy is stronger, while the Biden administration comes out emboldened and with momentum, which will translate into foreign policy.
