2022 shattered long-held beliefs and proved wrong past-based calculations and prognoses. Instead, it brought historical firsts, surprises, and unpredictable evolutions. One common thread was underestimating people, principles and commitments, and overestimating one’s own might.
Russians underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and courage, as well as the capacity of the US to unite transatlantic partners while remaining united on the domestic front. 2022 was a wake-up call in the international arena. While proofs for an impeding Russian military action were building up for a while, the invasion of Ukraine was regarded with disbelief in many Washington circles until it happened. As a former Romanian diplomat, I recall numerous times my colleagues went on the Hill and met US officials to underline the importance of the Black Sea security and plead for permanent US military presence in the region. For years, countries like Romania, Poland, and the Baltic States, well aware of how dangerous taking peace for granted was, raised concerns about Russia’s intentions and the security threat it posed. The return of a conventional military war at this scale in Europe made the US readjust its foreign policy priorities and has opened up a new chapter in transatlantic relations, including the unpredictable expansion of NATO.
2022 revealed again the inextricable nature of the relationship between domestic politics and foreign policy. Although its direct impact on voters’ choices is hard to measure, the war in Ukraine was in the background of the US midterm elections in many ways. The Democrats framed the support for Ukraine inside a bigger commitment to defend democracy, and for the Biden administration democracy was on the ballot this year. Fighting for democracy gained a new meaning and stopped being an abstract concept. Ukrainians have been literally fighting and sacrificing their lives to preserve not only their sovereign country but their young democracy. While pundits were skeptical the democracy issue would be of any interest to American voters, it actually was, alongside issues like the right to abortion and accepting election results. Republicans, on the other hand, used inflation as their main campaign message, inflation driven by global circumstances surrounding the war. Matter of fact, for domestic electoral reasons, some Republicans including leader McCarthy started to question the aid for Ukraine.
The previous time Ukraine had been on the political agenda was around the first impeachment of Donald Trump. In 2019, Trump pressed President Zelenskyy to announce an investigation against Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, in exchange for the US military aid Ukraine needed to defend itself against Russia and a coveted White House meeting between the two Presidents. Zelenskyy refused, and an intricate scheme to use Ukraine to benefit the electoral prospects of Donald Trump transpired from the congressional investigation that led to impeachment. In 2022, two days before Christmas, Presidents Biden and Zelenskyy stood together at the White House, announcing a new consistent aid for Ukraine and the commitment of the US to stand with Ukraine all long as it takes.
On the domestic front, Republicans underestimated American voters and what matters to them, as well as Joe Biden. Expectations for an easy sweeping Republican victory in the midterm elections turned into a disappointing result. Although they flipped the House with a very narrow majority, Republicans failed to produce the anticipated “red wave”, and the Democrats retained the Senate. American voters rejected election deniers in all swing states, where all major candidates endorsed by Donald Trump lost. Conservatives pushing for upending the right to abortion underestimated where the American people stand on this matter, despite their party preferences. Newt Gingrich himself warned Republicans to stop underestimating Joe Biden, whose legislative and policy performance surprised many. Inflation Reduction Act, as well as the bipartisan Pact Act for veterans exposed to burn pits, Chips Act to support semiconductors production in the US, Gun Law, Marriage Equality Bill to protect all marriages, and Electoral Count Act are among Biden’s legislative accomplishments only this year.
When the January 6 Committee started its work in 2021, little did we know about the magnitude of the plot to overturn the results of the 2020 elections and abusively maintain Donald Trump in power. Back then, a dangerous narrative that “nothing actually happened” on January 6 and all should be forgotten was creeping in already. But whoever underestimated the power and the relevance of the January 6 Committee made a big mistake.
Through a tremendous investigative effort and a series of explosive public hearings with former Trump allies, Republicans and White House officials as witnesses, January 6 Committee exposed a multi-prong plan meant to prevent the transfer of power after the 2020 elections.
No, January 6 was not “legitimate political discourse”, nor was it a protest accidentally gone out of control, nor a “normal tourist visit”. It was just the climax of a deliberate effort, orchestrated from the highest level of power, that included the “big lie” that the elections were stolen, a scheme with false electors, pressure on local officials, pressure on the Department of Justice, pressure on Vice-President Mike Pence, and rallying the extremist groups Oath Keepers, Proud Boys and Trump supporters for a violent insurrection. The Committee concluded its investigation with criminal referrals against Donald Trump, so now it’s in DoJ’s hands to hold Trump accountable. In the meantime, leaders of the far-right militia Oath Keepers were found guilty of seditious conspiracy, a rare and severe charge.
Marked by war, violence, inflation, and an unending pandemic, 2022 managed nevertheless to bring hope. Accountability comes and hopefully will come sooner or later for all those who incited and organized the attack on January 6. In the almost proverbial American partisan divide, there is still room for bipartisanship, as we have seen with the significant pieces of legislation approved by Congress this year. Democracy can prevail, so can decency, common sense, and normalcy, as we have seen in the November elections. And Ukraine stands.
