This article was published in Romanian language on May 31, 2023 on the website of the Center for Civic Participation and Democracy (SNSPA): http://civicparticipation.ro/uncategorized/contraofensiva-ucraineana-asteptari-si-necunoscute/
This is the English version of the article
“Victory for me is when I can get in an airplane, a commercial airliner, in Kyiv and fly to Hague and serve as a war crime prosecutor, prosecuting the Russian who did this to my country.” This is how the Ukrainian defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov defines victory. After recently traveling to Ukraine, Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief and Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize winner, propose one of the most clearly articulated perspective on what victory means for Ukraine. In their cover article of the latest issue of The Atlantic, the two prestigious journalists define victory for Ukraine on three pillars. First, Ukraine preserves the entirety of its internationally recognized territory, including Crimea. The so-called “diplomatic” solutions pushing Ukraine to consider giving up parts of its sovereign territory to Russia and admitting that an aggressor can just seize territory from another state are unacceptable. They also mean underestimating, yet again, Russia’s expansionist ambitions.
Second, victory is when the Ukrainians will feel safe in their own country: from feeling safe to fly commercial, to go to schools and theatres without fear of the constant shelling to feeling confident that this will never happen again. This goes not just for the Ukrainian people, but for anyone who wants to invest, visit, or build something in Ukraine. This sense of safety will nevertheless require more than the absence of fighting, it will require a security arrangement and security guarantees with the Western allies. Last but not least, victory means justice, prosecuting war crimes and some sort of compensation for Ukraine. Besides the palpable and quantifiable objectives, visible on the map and through specific actions, victory means a certain feeling, perception and state of mind, in Ukraine, Russia and everywhere globally, that such a horrific invasion will never happen again.
These are the main parameters for a victory as the Ukrainians define it, and Goldberg and Appelbaum succeed in unveiling not just the military, logistical and political aspects of a “theory of victory” in Ukraine, but also the psychological ones. There has been lately increased debate in Washington on defining such parameters, which is quite remarkable in itself. The initial cautiousness in expressing what victory for Ukraine means has started to be replaced by more straight and courageous messages. To the point that the concept of “total victory” has become part of the current debate.
Victory for Ukraine is definable and possible, and in the meantime, there are several variables and questions.
The first is the long-anticipated counteroffensive. Analysts, officials and journalists have been talking for weeks about the Ukrainian counteroffensive, seen as a potential “turning point” in the war. The evaluations on the counteroffensive range from the hope and belief it would change the course of the war, tipping the scale decisively in favor of Ukraine, to the concern not to raise to many expectations.
We do not know yet how the counteroffensive will look like and how it will unfold. According to military analysts, elements of it were previously visible on the ground, such as strikes on supply lines, ammunition depots, enemy infrastructure and logistics, in order to disrupt their ability to reject the Ukrainian offensive. This is how Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of Office of the President of Ukraine, responded to the numerous questions about when and how the counteroffensive would begin: “This is not a ‘single event’ that will begin at a specific hour of a specific day with a solemn cutting of the red ribbon. These are dozens of different actions to destroy the Russian occupation forces in different directions, which have already been taking place yesterday, are taking place today and will continue tomorrow.” For example, special recon forces in Kherson have spent previous weeks secretly crossing the Dnipro river into the Russian occupied territory, where they conducted sabotage activities in the preparation for a military operation. All of these have been already elements of the counteroffensive.
The Ukrainians have been skillful in preserving the secrecy and thus the advantage of surprise, as well as in crafting effective strategies. These premises lead me to believe we are going to see the counteroffensive unfolding at its full scale exactly when the Ukrainians have everything in place for an optimal result.
What else we do not know about the counteroffensive is how long it will take and its precise result. Currently, Russia occupies approximately 17-18% of the internationally recognized Ukrainian territory. Recently interviewed by The Washington Post, president Zelensky stated two types of objectives: “de-occupying” Ukraine and preventing the loss of Ukrainian lives. Asked about the goal of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said: „Let the Ukrainians decide what that would be. Our goal, as I’ve said so many times, is to make sure that we’re providing them with what they need to defend their sovereign territory.”
Retired US Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, one of the most respected analysts of the war in Ukraine, explained in detail why preparing a counteroffensive takes a long time. He anticipates the Ukrainian forces “will eventually liberate most – if not all – of the land occupied by the Russians in this offensive. I know the Ukrainian army, I also know the Russian army, and there is no doubt in my mind that will be the ultimate result of this offensive campaign.”
Given all these uncertainties, I’ve noticed recently among foreign policy experts in Washington an attempt to lower expectations not in regard to Ukraine’s ability to succeed, but rather in evaluating the meaning of this counteroffensive for the longer term. Both Ukrainians and the Western allies are already thinking in terms of a long-term strategy, beyond the next few months. The new commitments to support Ukraine announced after President’s Zelensky European tour and after the G7 Summit in Japan stand proof for a bigger perspective. US agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on F16 jets, which anticipates Ukraine receiving F16 jets from the NATO allies in the near future. This marks a new milestone in the military assistance for Ukraine. During the recent G7 summit, president Joe Biden spoke clearly about the “need for a just peace that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, both core principles of the U.N. Charter”.
All these questions will find their answers in the upcoming months. The unity of the allies in supporting Ukraine has been and continues to be a key aspect for how the war unfolds. Even if this counteroffensive may not bring the end of the war itself, it can be the beginning of the end. And a decisive step for Ukrainian victory.
